Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Bye Weeks...or Separating The Men From Boys

By Michael H. Osinski
@mhosinskillp
Lots of theories on bye weeks. Some so-called smart players draft players all with the same bye in an effort to punt one week. Some (like me) draft with an aversion to key players with the same bye. Others just assume waiver wire and trades will cover the duplicate byes.
The answer is that there is no answer. Winning requires you to assess what you have and what is available, and then processing the information and executing in a manner that allows you to avoid problems and hopefully improve your team.
Week 4 is also about the time teams begin to panic. Just don't overreact.
Not everyone drafted 2 qbs (In 2 of my 3 leagues I only took 1). But, if you have Rodgers or Newton this week, you need a fill in. If they are not owned, take a look at these guys:
Ryan Tannehill. Funny how Miami was made fun of for trading up and taking him in the top half of the first round even though he was a converted wr. He throws a good ball and if he can learn to take care of the ball better (5 fumbles) he can become a qb1(in a 12-team league).
Geno Smith. Yeah, I am out on a limb a little here. But, he throws the deep ball and made Holmes and Hill look good against the Bills. The picks are a concern, but his mobility and rushing yards will probably counter that.
Phil Rivers. He is owned in 2 of the 3 leagues I play in, but I was surprised at how low his ownership % is.  I wouldn't carry him on my roster because of his turnover history, but if you get a good match up, I'd roll the dice on him for a one week cameo.
Most players have a substitute on the roster. Sometimes those guys are driving you nuts. (I have Spiller, Ridley, David Wilson in all 3 leagues). I am exercising patience. You don't have to.
Bilal Powell. He's owned in 1 of my 3 leagues. Chris Ivory is out for what might be 4 weeks. He looked good against Buffalo (not a bad def). The Jets love having a power run game. He will get 20+ carries.
Brandon Bolden. Shane Vereen won't be back until week 11. This guy's performance against TB looked a lot like a Shane Vereen outing. Buy!
Isaiah Pead. I never quite liked DRich. Now I have a real reason. He's been walking around in a boot for more than a week and played 2 snaps last week against the Cowboys before taking a seat next to the Gatorade bucket. Pead has more skill anyway.
WR is another of those spots you probably drafted subs. I know I move mine around based on circumstance (I added Marlon Brown a couple weeks ago).
Marlon Brown. Not owned much and he gets the Bills this week, and while Jacoby Jones rides party buses this guy is taking his job. He's big (6-5), long and a perfect complement to Torrey Smith.
Stephan Hill. Similar to my theory on Phil Rivers. The occasional big game. Just watch the match up. We know Geno is gonna throw deep.
Robert Woods. Owned in 1 of my leagues. People pay more attention to Stevie Johnson. This guy looked good against a pretty good Jets team. Worth a look.
I only draft one TE. Usually. In one of my three leagues I lucked into Julius Thomas and Martellus Bennett. Few will be that lucky, but there are a few bye week replacements out there.
Zach Miller. Rarely owned. The 2-td performance Sunday may open a few eyes, but a steady performer.
Rob Housler. He was hurt early so he may have been forgotten. Carson Palmer has a history of checking down to TEs (Brandon Myers, Jermaine Gresham). You could do a lot worse.
Delanie Walker. Before I watched him Sunday against the Chargers, I wouldn't have put him here. But, Locker finds him...and as Locker grows as a qb, Walker will grow as a te.
A couple guys in one of my experienced (10 yrs) league draft 2 defenses. I don't get it. Seems like a wasted roster spot. I take the opposite approach and stream a defense each week. Not sure who is right. I have won championships streaming defenses. Guys I know have won drafting 2. Your mileage will vary.
Kansas City. Hot, hot hot. Slowed down Dallas and Philly. Had four pro-bowlers last year. They get an imploding Giants team Sunday. What's not to like?
Indiannapolis. They manhandled SF Sunday...and they get Jacksonville this week. (This is who I made my waiver claim on)
I usually stream kickers too. I look at match ups. I didn't stream last week, actually using a kicker two weeks in a row for the first time since 2009 and it burned me. (Zuerlein got 1!)
Caleb Sturgis, Steve Hauschka, and Shaun Suisham. (Not spending much time talking about kickers).
The key to surviving the bye weeks is to keep your eyes open and your trigger finger ready. Just hit send.