Thursday, June 20, 2013

1B Ranks “Gold Mine or fools Gold?

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RankFirst BaseTeam
1Joey VottoReds
2Prince FielderTigers
3Paul GoldschmidtDiamondbacks
4Albert PujolsAngels
5Adrian GonzalezDodgers
6Edwin EncarnacionBlue Jays
7Chris DavisOrioles
8Freddie FreemanBraves
9Anthony RizzoCubs
10Billy ButlerRoyals
11Mark ReynoldsIndians
12Allen CraigCardinals
13Mitch MorelandRangers
14Yonder AlonsoPadres
15Brandon BeltGiants
16Paul KonerkoWhite Sox
17Ryan HowardPhillies
18Brandon MossAthletics
19Kendrys MoralesMariners
20Lance BerkmanRangers
21Eric HosmerRoyals
22Corey HartBrewers
23Mark TeixeiraYankees
24Ike DavisMets
25Adam LaRocheNationals
26Justin MorneauTwins
I found their to be some big differences in opinions on Goldschmidt.ph_502671   ESPN’s mid May rankings http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/2013mayranks1B/fantasy-baseball-first-base-rankings-rest-2013-season have his average ranking of 4th for 1B.  Not counting Posey who I feel is much more valuable at catcher.  Rotowire has him at ranked 3rd at 1B 
http://ww
w.rotowire.com/baseball/playerrank.htm?pos=1B.  However CBS has him ranked 6th by by ,  9th by  and  6th by.  I heard them discuss on their podcast last week that he is a top 8 maybe top 10 1B. Fantasy Baseball : Fantasy News
Goldschmidt has been a hitting machine since he went pro.  I came into this season as a huge fan.  I targeted him everywhere I could and it has paid off.  If you look at his numbers for the two years he spent the minors, he hit 35 hr and .314 avg in high A then followed that up with a 30hr and .306 avg in AA.  This does not include the 8 hr and a .250 avg over 177 PA in the Majors the second year.  That is 73 hrs in his first two years as a pro.  Was his rookie campaign a disappointment with a 20 hr and .286 avg.  This would have been a much bigger deal in any year where there was not a Bryce Harper or a Mike Trout.  They overshadowed him with their super powers and game changing numbers at 19 and 20 years of age.  Yet, Goldschmidt is just 25, although compared to them he is old,  he is just reaching his prime.  He has a walk rate over 9.5% every year of his pro career and a 10.2% his rookie year.  This year he has been at a 12.5% rate while decreasing his strikeout rate each of his last three seasons.  This year it is down  to a 21.8% K  rate.
I believe he is only going to get better.  Get him now if you can, especially in keeper leagues.   I see him growing into a .300 40 hr 15 sb guy.  Hitting in the middle of the line up and  carrying a Babip that seems to be holding above .330 he will be a five category guy.  These numbers at first base will warrant first round value next year.  He has been absolute sold gold value this year with an ADP in the 8th round and an average auction price of $12.  I think that this is NOT a sell high time if you have him, if you do not have him let someone think they are selling high.  In keeper leagues, he may be the best long term 1st base keeper out there.  You as always need to knew your rules to find his keeper value, but I am sure that what ever they are he will be a valuable keeper next year.
Please let me know how you feel about my rankings.  I will gladly offer my reasons for any of the ranks.