Thursday, May 23, 2013

NBA gone but not forgotten

Article by  @furiousandfunk



Before I really devoted myself to MLB, I wanted to reflect on lessons learned during my first daily NBA season. I’m writing this as a reminder to myself and others next year that we will continue to improve as long as we don’t forget what worked from this season. A quick note before you read, it seems that regular season NBA and playoffs NBA are two different games. I did terrible the past few weeks playing in NBA playoffs after an amazing regular season so the info in this blog mainly relates to regular season.
The Stars and Scrubs roster method was very effective for me in big gpps. I usually picked three “scrubs” 4k-7k and loaded up on Stars priced around 15k. Surprisingly a lot of those 5k guys can go for 30, and when it happens you’re ahead of people that wasted money on big ticket duds. I read an article when I first started written by the great “Notorious” and he stressed that he started making his rosters each day by choosing centers first. I ALWAYS did this and had great results. I felt focused building a roster and by having an actual starting point I didn’t feel as overwhelmed. Another note on centers, they can be terrible…..Like AL_SMIZZLE punts his catchers, I punt my centers. I found a ton of value in centers priced 8k-12k, and if they get a double double you get easy value. If a guy was 12k but had multiple double doubles recently it was almost an automatic pick this year.
Learn to anticipate scratches and injured players by actually watching games. You will still get screwed by late scratches because it’s inevitable, but you can minimize the times it happens to you by watching how coaches play their players and how certain players deal with playing through injuries. It’s easy to see an injury report that says “Raymond Felton- wrist -probable.” You don’t think much about it, then draft him and watch as he puts up 8FPS total for 12k. If you had been watching the Knicks the night before you would have seen with your eyes that he banged it very hard on the floor. He was in obvious pain and playing one handed, not even close to dropping buckets. He decides to “give it a go” the next night but you know his bothersome wrist is no good so you pass and save yourself. You only get that info from watching the games…..or by being extra observant on twitter and following courtside reporters.
Hot streaks equal win streaks for DFS players!! I usually only click the “last 15 days” performance as an option while crafting rosters because we need to know how they are doing NOW, not a few months ago. This seriously helps me spot lower priced guys that are performing well. Also examine the teams recent injuries, maybe you missed a big injury but now you know so you can play the cheap replacement for another game or two. Now the hardest part of relying on “Hot” players……..knowing when they’re going to go cold. Unfortunately I don’t have an answer so I defer to my gut feeling. If a hot player has a cold game, that’s it for me unless my instinct says it was one bad night. Most of the time I walked away and waited weeks before I revisited playing streaky players, and the results were usually good.
Players may be good on one site and terrible on another, focus on your scoring format!!! I had JR Smith and Melo win me money on Draftkings and lose me money on Draftstreet in the same night. DK doesn’t penalize for missed shots and gives you bonus points for threes. Even if they throw up 15 bricks, they can still put up solid scores for their price if there aren’t penalties issued. Draftstreet does penalize for misses and no bonus points are given for threes. A bad shooting night will kill these players performances and they should be avoided on a site like DS. Lesson learned!
Losing streaks are part of the game, know this and accept it. I’ve seen people “rage quit” and be back the next night, swear off fantasy sports forever only to bet double the next night to try to make it up. These are dangerous practices that can kill hard earned bankrolls. Control your emotions and take a break, even if only for a day. Sometimes the daily grind can wear you out and giving your brain a breather can be big. I did it a few times and highly recommend it. I always came back fired up and performing better, like I was playing with a clear head again.
I have more tips for NBA but these blogs can get real long, real quick so I’ll save them for next week. Thanks as always to EVERYONE for all the support and “liking” my first blog enough to make it one of the most popular of the month!! Follow me on twitter @furiousandfunk and Keep doin work fellas!